Turner’s Take Podcast: US Economy Firms while Grains Sink
Turner's Take Podcast

Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 180

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New Podcast!

In our latest podcast we go over why the stock market has rallied, why we could see some weakness due to a “double top”, and why we like buying the breaks.  We are excited about the new micro emini S&P 500 contract and we explain why and how we are going to use it.  We then dive into the hogs and why we think it will be a long bull market in the deferred contracts.  Cattle may have some issues as the fats reverse on the chart and feeders are not looking good either.  The grain markets have been very bearish and we explain the reasoning behind the funds massive short position and how we have to trade the grain markets going forward.  Make sure you check out this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!

Macro Markets

The US economy has been growing at about 2.0% or higher.  China’s last GDP growth rate was at 6.4% which beat expectations.  US stock earnings have been mixed, but more positive than negative.  The Fed will not raise interest rates this year and may wait well into 2020 to do so again.  They are also not unwinding the Feb balance sheet until the economy is growing steadily again.  We like buying the dips and we are very excited for the new Micro Emini S&P futures. We go into detail on the podcast on why we like the micro contract, how we will use it, and why we like buying the dips in the stock market.

Continuous Emini S&P 500

Ag Markets

The grain markets are being repriced to account for burdensome US stocks and global stock due to large production estimates and the loss of feed demand due to African Swine Fever.  The USDA has moved he goal posts and the only real bullish catalysts left for the grain markets are weather rallies and the US-China trade deal.  Lets hope Trump is able to negotiated a very large purchase of US Ag good that included corn, wheat, and soybeans.

Keep in mind this only helps the US stocks.  Global stocks stay the same.  Rallies will still be capped due to large global supplies and farmers needing to price both old crop and new crop.  Once the markets stabilize we will be looking to trade the ranges, sell straddles, and sell the deferred futures contracts to capture the carry.

Continuous Soybeans

We think the Hog market is still only in the 3rd or 4th inning of the bull market,  China is going to be dealing with a protein deficit for at least a year.  Once a trade deal is done between the US and China, we expect even more pork exports.  The price action should be in the deferred contracts.

Finally, fats and feeders look like they are reversing on the charts.  Feedlots should be using the futures markets to hedge downside risk.  Spec traders should look the deferred contracts breaking lower on the charts.

August Live Cattle

Energy Markets

Crude Oil has rallied over $20 since the beginning of the year.  OPEC+ has reduced production, Iranian sanctions has lowered available supply, Venezuela’s political issues are hurting their crude production, and the US and global economy is chugging along.  Funds have bought a lot of crude and rbob gasoline as we head into the summer driving season.  Currently crude looks over bought but the long term trend is higher until OPEC starts increasing production.  We like buying support and selling into resistance on the daily chart (below)

Continuous Crude Oil 

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

While the podcast does not have specific actionable trading recommendations, we do publish them in Turner’s Take Market Alert for spec traders and Turner’s Take Ag Marketing for hedgers. Want to know what to look for in the commodity futures markets? Take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!

Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com
Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com
Twitter: @Turners_Take

Contact Craig Turner

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