AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are currently 3 to 4 cents in the red on Friday. Export commitments are now just a fraction behind the same time last year, and are 87% of the USDA full year export projection. The typical pace would show 85% of the export commitments reached by this point, with a year ago at 90%. China sold another 2.886 MMT of corn from 2014 on Friday, which was 72.75% of the total offered. The country’s Ag Ministry also estimated that the 2018 corn crop would rise slightly from the previous year to 218 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that Argentina’s corn crop is 29.5% harvested vs. the average of 24.1%.

May 18 Corn is at $3.78 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.87, down 4 cents,

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.94 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents

Dec 18 Corn is at $4.04, down 4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are trading 5 to 8 cents lower in most contracts at midday. Soy meal is up $1.20/ton, with front month soy oil down 9 points. Total commitments for soybean exports are now within 2.6% of this time last year. They are 96% of the USDA export forecast, matching both last year and the five-year average. Weekly meal exports were shown at 274,291 MT, with soy oil totaling 50,785 MT. Argentina’s soybean crop is 39.6% harvested according to BAGE estimates, ahead of the average of 27.7%. China’s soybean production is estimated to rise 1.9% in 2018 to 15.2 MMT on larger acreage according to their Ag Ministry.

May 18 Soybeans are at $10.29 1/4, down 8 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $10.40 3/4, down 8 1/4 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $10.43, down 7 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $10.39, down 5 1/2 cents,

May 18 Soybean Meal is at $374.50, up $1.20

May 18 Soybean Oil is at $31.32, down $0.09

Wheat

Wheat futures are showing losses of 8 to 9 1/2 cents in most contracts on Friday. Forecasts for this weekend are still showing moisture across the Southern Plains, although amounts have been reduced. Commitments for US all wheat exports are now lagging last year by 16.9%. Compared to the USDA projection they are 92% completed, with just 7 reporting weeks left in the MY. Their normal pace would show 102% of the export projection reached, with last year at 105%.

May 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.68 3/4, down 8 cents,

May 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.86, down 9 1/4 cents,

May 18 MGEX Wheat is at $6.03 3/4, down 9 1/2 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are mixed at midday, with nearby April up $1 on steady-higher cash trade. Feeder cattle futures are also mixed with May up 20 cents and other contracts lower. The CME feeder cattle index was down 78 cents on April 18 at $137.12. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Friday morning. Choice boxes were 21 cents lower at $211.55, with Select boxes up $1.33 at $199.81. Estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter was 470,000 head through Thursday. That is 5,000 below the previous week but up 13,000 head from the same week in 2017. Cash traded at $121 in TX and $122 in KS on Thursday, with sales of $193-195 in NE this morning.

Apr 18 Cattle are at $118.800, up $1.000,

Jun 18 Cattle are at $102.975, down $0.025,

Aug 18 Cattle are at $102.925, down $0.200,

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle are at $137.000, down $0.225

May 18 Feeder Cattle are at $138.625, up $0.200

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle are at $143.250, down $0.450

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are showing mixed trade on Friday, with front month May up 50 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 92 cents from the previous day to $55.97. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 3 cents at $68.39 this morning. The national base hog weighted average price was 36 cents higher at $57.87 in the Friday morning report. The USDA estimated week to date FI hog slaughter of 1.858 million head through Thursday. That was up 26,000 head from last week.

May 18 Hogs are at $70.650, up $0.500,

Jun 18 Hogs are at $77.825, down $0.250

Jul 18 Hogs are at $80.350, down $0.350

Cotton

Cotton futures are 56 to 165 points higher at midday. Weekly upland cotton exports were 361,952 RB for the week of 4/12, slightly above this time last year and down 27.55% from a week ago. Upland cotton export commitments are 17% larger than last year, as they have now reached 110% of the USDA export projection. The average for this week is 94%. The Cotlook A index was down 50 points from the previous day at 91.70 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was updated to 72.16 cents/lb, 16 points lower than the previous week.

May 18 Cotton is at 84.62, up 165 points,

Jul 18 Cotton is at 84.2, up 138 points

Dec 18 Cotton is at 79.150, up 56 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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